The old SDP collapsed. AD later weakened after many of its leaders surrendered to the PDP Government. But while others sold out and disappeared into political irrelevance, Bola Ahmed Tinubu stood firm. He became the rallying point of progressive politics in Nigeria.
From the ashes of AD, Tinubu built AC. He refined AC into ACN, expanding its structure, influence, and national appeal. He then strategically aligned with the strongest opposition force in the North, led by Muhammadu Buhari. That political cross-fertilization produced APC — a mega coalition that also attracted aggrieved PDP Governors and stakeholders. Together, they wrestled power from the PDP by presenting Buhari as the flag bearer.
Years later, Tinubu completed the journey by taking over the baton from Buhari and emerging as President of Nigeria.
That is Political Mathematics:
Vision + Structure + Patience + Strategy = Power.
Now, compare that with Peter Obi’s political journey.
Peter Obi emerged through APGA and, by fortune and opportunity, became Governor. But instead of building a lasting political structure, he kept moving from one political shelter to another.
When pressure mounted within APGA, he rented political space in PDP. The moment his Presidential ambition could not be satisfied there, he packed his bags and moved into Labour Party — another man’s house. After internal cracks and resistance surfaced again, he reportedly began shopping for another political accommodation under ADC. Now, amid fresh uncertainty, he appears stranded in what looks like a mere boys’ quarters of coalition politics.
Tinubu complains about nobody because he owns political houses others struggle to rent.
Peter Obi, despite his age and years in politics, is yet to build a durable political structure he can truly call his own. He remains a perpetual political tenant, moving from apartment to apartment whenever disagreements arise.
In politics, landlords dictate terms.
Tenants negotiate survival and unfit to lead.
That is the real Political Mathematics.
Osabinu Olufemi
Naija in Safe Hands